Joc Pederson’s historic woes and more
This, maybe more than anything, might best describe the abject chaos that the last week of Texas Rangers baseball brought.
On Thursday afternoon, less than two hours until baseball’s trade deadline, Rangers right fielder Adolis García‘s name was included in what turned out to be an errant trade report. On Sunday afternoon, in the finale of a house-of-horrors seven-game road trip, a García base-running blunder might’ve cost the Rangers a shot at a series split against the Seattle Mariners. That doesn’t include the two home runs he hit on the trip or the one he robbed against the Los Angeles Angels Tuesday night.
Weird week.
Weird season.
With that, let’s get into the five things we learned about these Rangers in the previous seven days.
One week can make a major difference
Remember how things felt this time last week? Here’s a quick refresher to jog your memories: The Rangers were a season-best six games over .500 the morning of July 28, had just won six consecutive games with sweeps of the Athletics and Atlanta Braves, pulled themselves into an earshot of a postseason position, and were as hot as any team in baseball just three days out from the trade deadline.
Ah, memories.
The Rangers proceeded to lose five of their seven games on a West Coast trip against two American League West opponents in often peculiar and perplexing fashion. They had a 51.6% chance to make the playoffs on July 27, according to FanGraphs, and their odds have since slipped to 40.4%.
They did not, however, concede the just-on-the-edge-of-the-postseason position that their electric July surged them into. The Rangers trailed the first-place Houston Astros within the division by four games on July 27 and now, despite a bumpy week, trail by 4½ games. They were a half-game behind the Boston Red Sox for the second wild card berth on July 27 and tied with the Seattle Mariners recordwise for the third spot; they are now only two games back of third.
So, no, the Rangers did not blow their playoff hopes this week in Anaheim and Seattle. They sure didn’t improve them, though.
Trade deadline thoughts, part 1
The Rangers made two points clear with their trade deadline actions. One, they have put the fate of this season in the hands of an offense whose .676 OPS ranks third-worst in baseball. Two, they believe that their historically great pitching staff can maintain its pace.
It may need to.
Only 27 teams in baseball history have reached the playoffs after they posted a .676 OPS or worse through their first 113 games in a season. The 2015 New York Mets, who won the National League pennant that season, are the only team to do so within the last half-of-a-century.
Those Mets, whose pitching staff was led by a long-haired Floridian named Jacob deGrom, were carried by a teamwide 3.43 ERA that ranked fourth in baseball that season. These Rangers, whose 3.26 ERA leads the league, are at least on a similar path.
They’ve at least got the same ace to lean on.
Trade deadline thoughts, part 2
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly threw against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning of a baseball game Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025, in Seattle.
John Froschauer / AP
The Rangers exclusively traded from their stock of pitching prospects to acquire right-hander Merrill Kelly, left-hander Danny Coulombe and right-hander Phil Maton before Thursday’s deadline. They were able to do so because of the team’s ability to identify, draft and develop arms without the need of premium picks.
Six prospects were dealt Thursday afternoon. Each were ranked among the club’s top 30 prospects, according to either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline’s lists. None was a Day 1 draft pick and only one was selected before the fifth round.
It’s a combined testament to the club’s scouts, coaches, medical staff, and strength and conditioning department.
Take left-handed pitcher Kohl Drake, the 25-year-old centerpiece of the Kelly deal, for example. The Rangers selected him in the 11th round of the 2022 MLB draft, identified a need for him to shed weight and developed him into their ninth-best prospect, according to Baseball America.
Garrett Horn, a left-hander who was traded for Coulombe, was drafted in the sixth round out of Liberty last season despite his recent Tommy John surgery and began to flourish this season. Ditto for right-hander David Hagaman, a fourth-round pick from West Virginia last summer, who was included in the Kelly trade.
Left-hander Mason Molina, traded for Maton, was acquired this winter from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Grant Anderson. The Rangers had tracked Molina since college, got him to lose weight and turned him into a top-30 prospect and eventual trade chip.
Farm systems are often led by first-round picks and high-bonus players. They are built and sustained, though, by wins around the margins.
Historic company — in the bad way
It’s time for a grim Joc Pederson statistic.
Though, in fairness, that’s almost exclusively been the status quo this year.
Pederson, the Rangers’ designated hitter, owns a .126/.256/.217 slash line through his first 53 games this season. That’s rough. It’s about to get rougher.
There have been just 20 players in the history of baseball who have posted a .130 batting average or worse in 150 plate appearances or more in a single season. Pederson is one of eight players who’ve done so in the modern era (since 1901), one of five who’ve done so after baseball integrated (1947) and one of two who’ve done so in the last 50 years entirely. Catcher Alex Jackson, who hit .122 with the Tampa Bay Rays last season, is the other.
Jackson, for the record, had a -0.4 WAR last season, according to Baseball Reference. Pederson, according to their formula, has been worth -1.0 WAR this year.
High-leverage Hoby
The Rangers’ four-game series against the Mariners included two blown saves from left-handed closer Robert Garcia and a vote of confidence from manager Bruce Bochy despite them.
It also included the continuation of this truth: Hoby Milner, the funky left-hander from Fort Worth, is the club’s best high-leverage arm regardless of title.
Milner pitched 3⅔ scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Mariners and, in Sunday’s loss, struck out AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh with a runner at second base to maintain a one-run deficit. His 2.13 ERA in situations classified as high-leverage is 11th-best among pitchers who’ve faced 40 or more batters in those scenarios. Six of the pitchers who’ve been better than Milner are considered full-time closers.
This now leads to a philosophical question. Is Milner fit to close games for the Rangers? Or is he better served as a versatile weapon that can be used from the sixth inning on? The Rangers will proceed with the latter option for now, and given his success in that role, there may be little reason to cause disruption.
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