NFL Playoff Simulator: Which Week 13 games have biggest impact on postseason races, No. 1 draft pick chances?
The Jaguars can give their playoff odds a significant boost by beating the lowly Titans. Norm Hall / Getty Images
Three Thanksgiving Day upsets complicated the playoff paths for teams that entered the season as heavyweights (Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions). Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals took their first step toward a complete turnaround with the return of quarterback Joe Burrow.
With cold-weather football officially here, teams in the playoff picture are looking to solidify their chances. And NFL Draft positioning is up for grabs for teams on the opposite end of the postseason race.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest swing games in Week 13, using data from The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have two very different outcomes on the line. The Titans (1-10) have the worst record in the NFL and enter Sunday with the best odds to secure the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. A loss to the Jags would raise those odds above 50 percent.
The Jaguars (7-4) have won three of their last four games (two in overtime). They are in a good position for a wild-card spot and would gain extra insurance if they avoid a slipup against the Titans. Jacksonville is one game behind the Colts in the AFC South and has its first game against the divisional leaders on deck in Week 14.
The Indianapolis Colts (8-3) had a chance to put themselves in a prime position for the top seed in the AFC last week against the Chiefs. But Kansas City prevailed in overtime, so the most important thing for the Colts this week is to bounce back with a win. As is true with every matchup in the NFL, that’s easier said than done, but it might be especially true here.
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is dealing with a fractured fibula. He plans to play through it, but the top-ranked Houston Texans defense isn’t easy on quarterbacks. In a win against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last week, Houston forced three turnovers, sacked Allen eight times and held the offense to 12 points. The surging Texans have won four of their last five, and their defense leads the league in yards and points allowed per game. The Texans (6-5) are third in the AFC South, but a win in their first of two matchups against the current division leaders would put them right back into the race and boost their playoff odds over the 50 percent mark.
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones plans to play through a fibula injury. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) are one game ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC West (and two back of the Denver Broncos) and in the middle of a tight wild-card race. Nothing is guaranteed with Los Angeles’ remaining schedule, which includes home games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Texans and road trips to the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Broncos. After getting blown out by the Jaguars in Week 11, now is the time for the Chargers to return from their bye week and find their identity. A slipup this week puts their playoff odds in jeopardy.
The 2-9 Raiders saw their odds for the No. 1 pick improve after they lost to the Cleveland Browns last week. Another loss would strengthen those chances, but still leave them behind the Titans.
Buffalo (7-4) has lost two of its last three games and has turned the ball over nine times over that stretch. The offense has struggled in those losses to the Miami Dolphins and Texans, and it’s clear that reigning MVP quarterback Josh Allen needs more support in the passing game. Earlier this week, the Bills signed veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who they hope will help on that front. Keon Coleman, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a healthy scratch for the past two weeks, and his status for this Sunday remains unknown.
Road wins haven’t come easy for the Bills, though, as they have lost three of the last four away from Buffalo. Their chances to win the AFC East have dipped to about 7 percent thanks to the surging New England Patriots, but their odds of securing at least a wild-card berth would jump to around 90 percent with a win this week. As for Pittsburgh (6-5), their playoff odds already got a solid boost with the Baltimore Ravens’ loss on Thanksgiving night to the Cincinnati Bengals, and a win Sunday would get them over the 50 percent mark. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers did not play in last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears with a fractured wrist, but coach Mike Tomlin said he expects Rodgers to be ready for the Bills matchup.
The Jets (2-9) are third in line for the No. 1 pick, and good draft positioning could help the rebuild under new coach Aaron Glenn. Quarterback Justin Fields was benched for the team’s last game, against the Ravens. A loss to Atlanta would boost the Jets’ odds for the top pick to above 20 percent.
The Falcons (4-7) are already essentially out of both playoff contention and No. 1 pick contention, so they are just along for the ride in this game.
The NFC wild-card race is more crowded after the Bears’ win against the Eagles on Friday. San Francisco (8-4) outlasted the Carolina Panthers last week despite three interceptions from quarterback Brock Purdy. He’ll be tested again with Cleveland star defensive end Myles Garrett, not to mention a forecast for unfavorable weather, with which Purdy has struggled in the past. In the playoff race, the 49ers’ odds shift by nearly 20 percent whether they win or lose.
For the Browns (3-8), they’re basically eliminated from the running for the No. 1 pick, rising to just a 2 percent chance with a loss this week.
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