This would not be the first NFL opening weekend to stare fans dead in the eye and lie to them.

Perhaps you saw new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones reaching heights franchise icons Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck never reached, or 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers producing a stat line from yesteryear, or Justin Fields playing more efficiently than ever before.

The Pick Six column separates truth from fiction in the extreme, even shocking debuts by seven veteran starters in new places: Jones, Rodgers, Fields, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson. It’s a great opportunity to stack the veteran QB debuts from most encouraging to most troubling, with an eye toward what is sustainable.

We begin with Jones, Indy’s eighth opening-day starter in the past nine seasons. He ranked 30th in Quarterback Tiers this summer, only to accomplish something in his first Colts debut that Manning and Luck never managed in 321 combined starts with the team.

The full Pick Six menu this week:

• QB debuts, from Jones to Rodgers
• Bills’ rally adds to worrisome Ravens trend
• What we learned from Packers-Lions
• Coaching debuts: Vrabel flubs it
• What’s new for Herbert, Chargers
• Two-minute drill: Crushing Caleb

1. Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and … Daniel Jones? The Colts’ new quarterback set a ridiculously high bar for QBs debuting with new teams.

• Daniel Jones, Colts: Led a 33-8 victory over the Miami Dolphins, helping the offense score on all seven possessions.

I wondered whether dropping the charade that Anthony Richardson was prepared to lead the Colts might free Indianapolis’ other offensive players from the obligation to propagate it, giving the team an emotional boost.

Never was there any reason to think Jones would lead Indy to points on every drive during a game, which neither Manning nor Luck ever accomplished.

Only once in 227 total Colts starts did Manning lead Indy to points on its first seven drives of a game, during a wild-card playoff game against Denver after the 2003 season. Luck led six scoring drives to open a game in 2014.

What happened Sunday is obviously not sustainable for Jones and the Colts, but there’s no question they can become more consistent with this quarterback in the lineup instead of Richardson. As one NFL team exec put it before the season in assessing the shift from Richardson to Jones: “(Coach Shane Steichen) is probably like, ‘Dude, just give me a guy who’s not going to give me the one bad play that’s going to blow up the drive, and just get me on schedule so I could keep dialing it up.’”

Steichen was dialing it up Sunday, finding creative ways to get the ball to his rookie first-round tight end, Tyler Warren, and getting Michael Pittman wide open for Indy’s first touchdown. One example: Steichen used three tight ends to keep Miami in base defense during the first drive, then called a dropback pass from the shotgun formation, with one tight end (Drew Ogletree) helping free another (Warren) for a 21-yard gain.

Jones’ limitations aren’t going away, but his can be schemed around, which was less the case with Richardson.

• Aaron Rodgers, Steelers: Tossed four touchdown passes without a turnover in the Steelers’ 34-32 victory over his former team, the Jets.

It’s no shock seeing Rodgers play well, even at his age. There are signs he’ll struggle to produce consistently well over the course of a season.

“He cannot get away from the rush anymore, but he can move in the pocket and deliver those wrist flicks accurately, with or without his feet on the ground,” a coach who caught the Jets-Steelers game on TV said.

Late in the second quarter, facing second-and-10 from the Pittsburgh 35, Rodgers led receiver Calvin Austin III perfectly with one of those off-balance wrist-flick throws 14 yards past the line of scrimmage from the far hash, for a 30-yard gain. It was brilliant, but less sustainable for Rodgers than it used to be.

“What he has to watch out for is those wrist flicks turn into interceptions later in the year,” the coach said. “The four (TDs) is what everyone sees. Nobody pays attention to the two dropped interceptions or the fact that, just four or five years ago, he’d go five games without one of those.”

Rodgers took four sacks and three other hits, including multiple heavy blows.

What also stood out Sunday was the complementary nature of this Steelers victory. That part can be sustainable, even though the run defense obviously struggled.

Think how many times during Rodgers’ Green Bay tenure that the quarterback played well, only to have the Packers’ star-crossed special teams betray him. Those days could be far less frequent in Pittsburgh.

On Sunday, Rodgers celebrated when the Steelers forced and recovered a fumble during a fourth-quarter kickoff return. Rodgers celebrated again when kicker Chris Boswell booted the winning 60-yard field goal.

The Steelers finished the game +9.8 in special teams EPA. It was the third-most support on special teams Rodgers has received in 263 career starts, per TruMedia. The No. 1 game on that list: last season against Seattle, when Rodgers was with the Jets.

Put another way, two of Rodgers’ 19 starts since leaving Green Bay produced special teams performances surpassing the Packers’ special teams output in 242 of his 243 starts with the team.

• Justin Fields, Jets: Three total touchdowns and the best EPA/pass play for any Jets starter since 2022.

A different veteran coach who watched Steelers-Jets on TV thought Fields, who ranked 27th in QB Tiers this offseason, had never looked better than he did in this game.

The numbers agree.

Fields, making his 45th career start and first since signing a two-year, $40 million deal with New York, posted a career-best EPA per pass play (.536). The Jets posted their fourth-best EPA per offensive play (.264) in 229 games over the past 15 seasons.

Fields is a known quantity with known limitations. Teams willing and able to commit to a Fields-friendly offensive scheme could succeed more than his previous teams succeeded. The Jets could be one such team.

Offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand is the unknown variable. This season could establish whether the Detroit Lions should have prioritized keeping Engstrand to replace Ben Johnson instead of hiring John Morton and letting Engstrand follow Aaron Glenn to the Jets. Week 1 was hugely encouraging for the Jets on that front. No one thought they’d score 32 points on offense.

• Geno Smith, Raiders: 362 yards passing in a 20-13 victory over New England, posting the best yards per attempt (10.6) for a Raiders starter since 2022.

This was a classic Smith performance with tons of yardage and some risky throws with both good and bad results. It was enough to beat a Patriots team lacking in talent.

And it’s very much sustainable for Smith. This was his fourth game over the past three seasons with 300-plus yards, no more than one touchdown pass and at least one interception. No player has more of those games than Smith over that period.

• Joe Flacco, Browns: Completed 31 of 45 passes for 290 yards with one touchdown and two picks in a 17-16 defeat to Cincinnati.

Flacco was far from perfect in his first game back with Cleveland, but he deserved better results.

Early in the fourth quarter, he had back-to-back passes dropped on third and fourth down in Bengals territory. He had the Browns in position to take the lead with 2:22 left, but kicker Andre Szmyt missed wide right from 36 yards. Both of Flacco’s interceptions went off his own receivers’ hands, including a drop by Cedric Tillman that DJ Turner grabbed to all but seal the game for the Bengals with 1:24 to play.

As a whole, though, this seems pretty indicative of what the Browns can expect from Flacco.

• Sam Darnold, Seahawks: Passed for 150 yards and no touchdowns in a 17-13 defeat to San Francisco as Seattle gained 230 yards, its second-lowest total since Mike Macdonald became coach.

The Seahawks traded Smith to Las Vegas and signed Darnold to replace him at a lower price. Which quarterback would you rather have leading your team downfield in the final minutes of a close game against the 49ers? I posed that question to an offensive coach during the offseason.

“I think Geno operates at a higher level, especially in critical moments,” the coach said. “Sam’s two-minute stuff versus Geno’s two-minute stuff, that is where Geno separates himself.”

Darnold’s EPA per pass play (-0.36) was worse than all but two of the single-game performances by Smith in his 53 total starts with Seattle. But he still had Seattle in scoring position late.

His 40-yard strike to Jaxon Smith-Njigba gave Seattle first-and-10 from the San Francisco 14 with 1:06 remaining Sunday. The rally ended with Nick Bosa pushing Seattle offensive tackle Abe Lucas into Darnold, forcing a fumble, which Bosa recovered.

Seattle got just 26 combined receiving yards from players not named Smith-Njigba — including Cooper Kupp’s two catches for 15 yards — in its first game since trading DK Metcalf. It was a disappointing start for Darnold and the Seahawks’ offense.

• Russell Wilson, Giants: Completed 46 percent of his passes (17 of 37) and averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in a 21-6 loss to Washington.

It’s obvious where this is headed, but when? The Giants will not sit through many more games such as this one before switching to Jaxson Dart.

Wilson, who has fallen in QB Tiers balloting every year since 2020, is one of 14 quarterbacks with at least 40 starts since 2022. He ranks last among them in team offensive points per game (19.3) over that stretch.

Coach Brian Daboll did not immediately commit to Wilson as his starter next week. Making a change now would seem premature if the Giants did not feel Dart was ready to start the full season. But we all saw Dart shine in preseason. The clock is ticking a little louder today.

2. Are the Ravens the new Bills?

No successful NFL franchise can match the Buffalo Bills for heartache. “Wide Right” and “13 Seconds” are strong enough alone to differentiate Buffalo. But the Ravens are gaining on them after blowing a 15-point lead to the Bills in the fourth quarter of the teams’ epic opener Sunday night.

The outcome recalled what one executive from another team said in ranking Buffalo first and Baltimore second in the AFC heading into the season: “Talent-wise, Baltimore might be better in certain spots, but they just haven’t shown the ability to take that next step. Buffalo has shown that in crucial moments, crucial games, they are able to make that one extra play, the few times they have played.”

A pattern is developing.

The Ravens’ 2024 season began with one tight end’s toe touching the white line to negate the would-be tying (or possibly winning) touchdown at Kansas City. Their 2024 season ended with another tight end dropping the tying two-point play in the snow at Buffalo in the divisional round.

Then came the 2025 opener Sunday night.

Baltimore took possession leading 40-25 with 9:18 left in the fourth quarter, only to lose, 41-40.

The Ravens made the wrong kind of history.

Teams had been 53-0 since 2000, counting playoffs, when leading by 15 points and taking possession with 8-10 minutes left in regulation, per TruMedia. The Ravens made it 53-1 by punting twice and losing Derrick Henry’s fumble on three closing drives spanning eight plays and 17 net yards.

It wasn’t Baltimore’s first collapse.

The Ravens are one of seven teams to lead at least 20 games by 9-16 points in the fourth quarter over the past four seasons. Those teams are 159-13 (.924) in those games, with Baltimore accounting for six of the 13 defeats.

Buffalo, known for end-of-half blunders in past years, scored a field goal as the first half expired after moving the ball 48 yards in three plays (including a spike). Then the Bills moved 66 yards in nine plays with no timeouts over the final 1:26, kicking the winner as time expired.

“Baltimore has struggled closing in the playoffs — there is something there that doesn’t work,” another exec said after the game Sunday. “Both teams are flawed, but they are so good, it’s just back and forth. They will both cycle right back through and be there in the end.”

3. Packers’ domination of Detroit just one game? Depends on who you ask.

Now that the Packers have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the NFC …

OK, not so fast. But those high on Green Bay entering the season were entitled to feel some validation Sunday. The Packers, 1-6 in their previous seven games against Detroit, led the Lions by an average of 11.7 points on a per-play basis, by far the largest average cushion for any team in the conference in Week 1.

The newly acquired Micah Parsons affected the game in limited work (29 snaps), pressuring Jared Goff into a red zone interception early, then chasing him down for a sack late in the game.

Nearly everything went to plan for Green Bay.

Just one game? Depends on who you ask.

Eight execs polled before the season slotted Green Bay second behind Philadelphia in the conference (see their votes below). Detroit was third.

Two of those voters had the Packers No. 1, with one of them struggling to find a weakness on Green Bay’s roster. The other predicted a big fall for the Lions, suggesting they didn’t do a good enough job replacing coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn.

“I don’t live in this bizarre world where you just lose two top play callers and everything moves along,” this voter said Sunday. “I didn’t anticipate them looking as bad as they did against Green Bay, but I also didn’t anticipate them (being fine).”

If there were any concerns for the Packers, two potential Jordan Love interceptions (one dropped, the other negated by penalty) might rank highly on the list, followed by the offense’s inability to do much after halftime.

It’s not much to sweat coming off a two-touchdown victory over your top nemesis in the division, on a day when Parsons, in the words of coach Matt LaFleur, resembled a “shooting star” on his way to the QB.

4. New head coaches went 2-4 in Week 1, with Chicago’s Ben Johnson still to play. Was that Mike Vrabel waving the white flag in his Patriots debut?

Jacksonville’s Liam Coen (26-10 winner over Carolina) and Las Vegas’ Pete Carroll (20-13 over New England) fared better than New Orleans’ Kellen Moore (20-13 loser to Arizona), Dallas’ Brian Schottenheimer (24-20 loser to Philadelphia), New York’s Aaron Glenn (34-32 loser to Pittsburgh) and Vrabel among coaches debuting in new jobs.

Vrabel, 0-1 with New England, has leaned into his reputation as a strategically adept game manager. We’ve given him ample credit here, including in a 2022 column explaining what your favorite team could learn from Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans.

Vrabel’s in-game strategist, John Streicher, who recently sat for an extended interview, appeared to help upgrade the Los Angeles Rams’ processes during a one-year stint. Rams coach Sean McVay even suggested Streicher might one day become a general manager.

With so much apparent horsepower, it was strange to see Vrabel’s Patriots punt on fourth-and-10 from their own 44-yard line while trailing the Raiders by 10 points with 4:53 left in regulation. Even with all three timeouts, the Patriots could count on having only one more meaningful possession that late in the game, unless they forced a turnover.

Coaches I consulted saw Vrabel choosing a path toward making this a one-score game, with less chance for winning than if New England had tried to convert on fourth down.

Punting seemed to be the sort of old-fashioned decision former Patriots coach Bill Belichick or his former understudy, the current New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, might have made. But Vrabel?

Mike Vrabel owns his decision to punt late in the game on 4th and 10, saying their plan ultimately didn’t work:

“…We’d like a better punt. And we had them stopped, and that was the plan. And that didn’t work. And they hit one, and we just didn’t have enough time at the end to… pic.twitter.com/Fe1t578m44

— Tom Carroll (@yaboiTCfresh) September 7, 2025

This was one of those dire situations from which teams do not escape. Teams win only 17 percent of the time historically when trailing by 10 points in the quarter with more than 5:00 remaining.

Teams in the Patriots’ situation — down by 10 in the fourth quarter, 4:30 to 5:30 remaining, all three timeouts available, fourth down, 6-10 yards to go, outside field-goal range — are 0-6 since 2000, per TruMedia. That includes 0-5 when they punt, which teams typically would have done years ago, before the fourth-down revolution.

Perhaps Vrabel knew something optimistic fans did not know.

“Everyone thought Vrabel was going to turn this thing around quickly,” a coach from another team said, “but they are devoid of players.”

5. Justin Herbert’s huge night in the Chargers’ 27-21 victory over Kansas City felt cathartic but was not an anomaly. The biggest revelation was in the play selection.

The way Herbert closed out Kansas City, with a 19-yard scramble, punctuated by a theatrical slide, felt like he had turned back the clock to a time when the league was convinced he would become a superstar.

“Kept the feet up, for emphasis, kind of like (Michael) Jordan against Utah with the pose — the pose slide,” a coach from one of the Chargers’ rivals said.

NFL coaches and executives know what the Chargers have in Herbert. They voted him fifth in Quarterback Tiers each year from 2022-24 and seventh this offseason. But the way Herbert flashed early in his career, tossing seven touchdown passes and only one interception against the defending AFC champion Chiefs in 2021, had come to feel like a tease.

Coaches and execs backed off placing Herbert in Tier 1, mindful of his 0-2 postseason record and poor team success in close games. They questioned whether the Chargers and their run-oriented coach, Jim Harbaugh, would put Herbert in position to flex his passing prowess.

Friday night’s game was part of growing evidence that Harbaugh and the only offensive coordinator he has ever had in the NFL, Greg Roman, are breaking from established run-oriented form, putting the ball in their quarterback’s hands. Herbert, with 318 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs, seemed to be saying, “More, please.”

To demonstrate the shift, we turn to the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert greater influence on play selection. The Chargers ranked 20th on the Cook Index with a 49 percent pass rate from Weeks 1-10 last season. Since then, they rank second only to the Chiefs at 63 percent.

“They finally started throwing the ball (on early downs) with Herbert,” another coach said. “They might have won the division the last couple years if they had done that. He is so good, and people don’t give him his due.”

The Chargers opened the season Friday night by passing 15 times in 20 chances on early downs in the first 28 minutes, the third-highest rate for a Roman-coordinated offense in 179 total games with the Chargers, Ravens, 49ers and Bills. Since Week 14 last season, a span of seven games (counting playoffs), Roman has posted three of his five highest career Cook Index readings.

The Chargers have trailed more in these games as their defense has fallen off, so it’s possible Harbaugh is priming the offense in response to that. His overall philosophy obviously has not changed. But it’s also true that Harbaugh has never had a quarterback in the NFL quite like Herbert.

“I’d be embarrassed if I had a dynamic guy who could throw it all over the place and he is averaging 150 yards passing per game,” a third coach said. “There is an acknowledgement that Herbert is really f—ing good.”

6. Two-minute drill: Who benefits from crushing Caleb?

Tyler Dunne, formerly of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Buffalo News and Bleacher Report and founder of GoLongTD.com, published a series over the weekend packed with harsh criticisms of Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.

The three-part series, which does not focus entirely on Williams, cites 32 anonymous sources: coaches, scouts, executives, players and staffers.

Source after source suggested Williams struggled learning the offense, wasn’t willing to put in the work and resisted coaching. The report functioned as a double-barreled rebuttal to the May revelations in Seth Wickersham’s book, “American Kings,” in which Williams was quoted as telling his father that Bears coaches offered him little to no coaching in 2024.

All of this is fascinating on the eve of the Bears’ season-opening game against Minnesota on Monday night. Whether or not the allegations are true, they’re now in the public domain, which puts the new coaching staff in a favorable position. If Williams plays well, everyone wins. If he struggles or shows immaturity, Dunne’s reporting makes it easier for the current coaches to advocate turning the page.

First, how about we let Williams play his second season? Second, let’s listen carefully to see what the new staff says about Williams, who could use some defending but doesn’t seem to be getting much.

• Titan up (and down): Cam Ward became the 38th rookie to start in Week 1 since 2000 and the second for Tennessee. The Titans’ first, Marcus Mariota, completed 13 of 15 passes, including four for touchdowns, with a maximum 158.3 passer rating. His EPA per pass play (0.94) ranked first among the 38 by a wide margin. The corresponding figure for Ward (-0.41) ranks 37th among the 38, ahead of only Brandon Weeden. Opening the season against Denver, which ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA per play last season, made life rough for Ward on Sunday.

• Right punishment for Carter: With the NFL expected to mete out punishment for the Eagles’ Jalen Carter, who spat on Dallas’ Dak Prescott on Thursday night, how far would you go with a suspension?

Some in the league think Carter has already served enough of a suspension by missing a full game. Others cite the college spitting incident that followed two days later in the Florida-South Florida game as an example of how influential the NFL can be, suggesting that a suspension long enough to end spitting once and for all could benefit sportsmanship at all levels.

I lean toward the longer suspension for this specific act, because spitting on someone is about as disrespectful as unsportsmanlike conduct gets.

(Photos of Aaron Rodgers, left, and Daniel Jones: Mitchell Leff, Michael Hickey / Getty Images)