Fantasy football managers are buzzing about breakout candidates and potential busts heading into the 2025 season. From Tyler Warren’s rookie outlook compared to Brock Bowers to Breece Hall’s league-winning upside, Trey Benson’s breakout chance, Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s ADP surge, and Kyle Pitts’ return to form, these player evaluations could make or break your draft.

As the fantasy draft season winds down, Tyler Warren sits fifth in the tight end rankings in his rookie season. The Colts have a run-first offense with viable wide receivers to move the ball. There is no doubt their rookie tight end improved Indianapolis’ offense, but what percentage of their completions will land in Warren’s hands? With 500 pass attempts, Daniel Jones and company should have about 300 completions. Let’s give 40 to their running backs (45 in 2024) plus 200 to their wide receiver (224 in 2024), leaving 60 tight end catches (only 39 last year). 

In 2024, Sam LaPorta ranked eighth at tight end (60/726/7), which shows what Warren must accomplish in his rookie season to be a winning investment. I don’t expect Michael Pittman or Josh Downs to have a decrease in their roles unless they have an injury. Alec Pierce offers a big play floor, and the wild thing (Anthony Richardson) is only a phone call away if Daniel Jones (24-44-1) can’t deliver wins.

Over the back half of August, many fantasy drafters have put Hall into their avoid column, leading to him sliding from a 3/4 selection in 12-team leagues to a late fifth pick in the high-stakes market. His pass-catching sets a high floor, but Braelon Allen will definitely get in the way. In 2023, Hall was a beast (second-best running back) while underperforming expectations last year (RB16 – 242.90 fantasy points in PPR leagues). 

On the Jets, Garrett Wilson is the clear top option in the passing game. Who is the second choice to move the ball via the pass – rookie tight end Mason Taylor, Allen Lazard, or Josh Reynolds? The answer is none of the above, which should highlight how active Hall should be this year. Justin Fields will snipe scoring chances, along with Allen, but the Jets’ top back still should have plenty of chances to rack up fantasy points.  If he regains his previous form, Hall will help many fantasy teams win league titles.

The combination of a preseason touchdown run and Brian Robinson’s trade led to Croskey-Merritt’s climb up draft boards to the Commanders’ top running back choice in the fantasy market. He lacks the foundation skill set to jump Austin Ekeler on passing downs, and Chris Rodriguez has the inside track to goal-line carries. Croskey-Merritt brings a home run profile, with change of pace value that could lead to some hot hand outcomes. Ultimately, he should have been the second running back drafted in this offense behind Ekeler. To offer starting fantasy value, Croskey-Merritt must provide value in catches and touchdowns.

The Cardinals suggested this summer that Benson would be in their RB2A position, creating a high enough opportunity to produce some RB3 games in the fantasy market. Conner has been very good in his time with Arizona, while coming off a career-high season (236/1,094/8 with 47 catches for 414 yards and one touchdown). Repeatability is challenging in the NFL, especially at age 30, with a history of missing time almost every year. Benson was the second running back drafted in 2024 while showcasing a high upside three-down profile. His name should be glowing in the player queue. If you can’t see the light, you’re not reading between the lines.

Simmering in Pitts’s NFL profile is his high-profile rookie season (68/1,026/1 on 110 targets). An injury and a significantly lower opportunity resulted in below-par results over the past two seasons. He has the talent to be a top two option in the Falcons’ passing game, and Atlanta has been working on using him this summer on the outside, giving him a wide receiver profile on many more plays. Atlanta drafted him fourth overall in 2021, and he has consistently made big plays for a tight end (13.5 YPC in his career with a 12.6-yard floor in 2023). Pitts is a fantasy steal as the 15th-ranked tight end, almost removing any downside risk.